Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies - Chapter 11

Multipolar scenarios

A multipolar scenario is one where society has to deal with various competing superintelligent systems. Bostrom evaluates how society might develop during this period. 

Of horses and men

In this subchapter, Bostrom invites the reader to imagine a future where machine workers are more cost-effective and more skillful than human employees in almost every industry and type of employment. The following subchapters tend to provide a picture to this scenario.

Wages and unemployment

In current society, as Bostrom rightly identifies, products that have been handcrafted by indigenous people often have a higher price tag. In light of this, certain products in the future may still receive higher demand or a higher price tag if they come from certain humans or superior technological systems. 

Accordingly, since human labor will not be significant, salaries would be reduced to a level where humans could not sustain themselves. The repercussions for human employees is therefore drastic: not lower salaries or anything of the sort, but starvation and death. Bostrom provides the example of the reduction in the horse population in the USA when cars were obtaining mass-market success. 

Capital and welfare

However, one critical distinction between humans and horses is that humans own capital. 

As Bostrom rightly recognises, since world GDP(gross domestic product) would increase exponentially following an intelligence explosion (due to increase in productivity by superintelligent systems and by subsequent obtainment of very large pieces of land through space colonization), it is apparent that the total income from capital would also amplify exponentially. “If humans remain the owners of this capital, the total income received by the human population would grow astronomically, despite the fact that in this scenario humans would no longer receive any wage income.” 

Nevertheless, still a substantial part of the population may have negative wealth as they might possess debt or scarce tangible assets. Despite this, even individuals, according to Bostrom, “who have no private wealth at the start of the transition could become extremely rich.” This is because opportunity will be everywhere and poorer people could be sustained by government schemes or donations from wealthy people who have unbelievable wealth and a small portion of that would equate to large amounts for their poorer counterparts. Taxing the people who have obtained this astronomical wealth, is also an option. 

Population growth and investment

Software population is also highly likely to skyrocket due to the fact that it is copyable.

Post-transition formation of a singleton?

Despite the possibility of multiple superintelligent systems, it is still likely that one might manage to perform a singleton. 

A second transition

According to Bostrom, there could be a second technological transition adequately large and advanced to provide a decisive strategic advantage to one of the superintelligent systems which could result in giving them the chance to establish a singleton.

Unification by treaty

It would be beneficial to establish an “international collaboration in a post-transition multipolar world. Wars and arms races could be avoided. Astrophysical resources could be colonized and harvested at a globally optimum pace. The development of more advanced forms of machine intelligence could be coordinated to avoid a rush and to allow new designs to be thoroughly vetted. Other developments that might pose existential risks could be postponed. And uniform regulations could be enforced globally, including provisions for a guaranteed standard of living (which would require some form of population control) and for preventing exploitation and abuse of emulations and other digital and biological minds.”

However, despite being close to an ideal scenario, just with any international collaboration and unification of a treaty, it is quite challenging to ensure compliance.