Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies - Chapter 2

Paths to superintelligence

As the previous Chapter indicates, it is highly likely that by the end of the century, machines will have achieved superintelligence. However, they are vastly inferior to human intelligence at the moment. Therefore, this Chapter will consider how machines can obtain superintelligence. Correspondingly, the very fact that there are various paths towards superintelligence, raises the probability that it will occur. Superintelligence is defined by Bostrom as “any intellect that greatly exceeds the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest.”

Artificial Intelligence

The first path that will be examined, and the most likely to achieve superintelligence is artificial intelligence. As Bostrom asserts, in order for this to be accomplished, the AI system would have to have a capacity to learn, an ability to deal effectively with uncertainty and probabilistic information. This was first proposed by Alan Turing, who described such a machine as a ‘child machine’, meaning that its intelligence would depend on how well it could learn.  Additionally, the path toward superintelligence in AI will be pursued by “running genetic algorithms on sufficiently fast computers, achieving results comparable to those of biological evolution”.

Additionally, it is feasible for artificial intelligence to examine the human brain and suggest that we could use it as a template for machine intelligence. This idea is distinguished to that of whole brain emulation, which we will discuss in the next subsection. 

An interesting idea is also suggested by Bostrom who recognised that it is probable that a hybrid approach, combining some brain-inspired techniques with some purely artificial methods, would be adequate in order to achieve superintelligence. Consequently, the system in question would not have the features of a human brain despite some brain-derived features being in the system. Bostrom however cannot put a timeframe on this, because the advances in brain science in the future cannot be predicted but, as advances in brain science occur, the more likely it is that machine intelligence could be developed in this way. 

Whole brain emulation

Another path that could be used to attain superintelligence is the process of “whole brain emulation (also known as “uploading”), intelligent software would be produced by scanning and closely modeling the computational structure of a biological brain.”

There is certain criteria in order to accomplish this:

1. An accurate scan of a particular human brain is created. 

2. The accurate data from the scanners would be provided to a computer for automated image processing to recreate the three-dimensional neuronal network that developed cognition in the original brain. 

3. The neurocomputational structure produced from the second step would be installed on a sufficiently powerful computer. If completely successful, the consequence would be a digital reconstruction of the original intellect, with memory and personality intact. The emulated human mind now exists as software on a computer. 

Whole brain emulation does, however, require some rather advanced enabling

technologies. “There are three key prerequisites:

1. Scanning: high-throughput microscopy with sufficient resolution and detection of relevant properties; 

2. Translation: automated image analysis to turn raw scanning data into an interpreted

          three-dimensional model of relevant neurocomputational elements; and 

3. Simulation: hardware powerful enough to implement the resultant computational structure.”

Therefore, better computational power is needed in order to go down this path as well, since no brain has yet been emulated.

The objective of such an approach is to capture enough of the computationally functional resources of the brain to allow the consequential emulation to perform intellectual tasks. Consequently, the confusing biological features of a real brain are immaterial.

It is true that the emulation path is not likely to be achieved in the near future because much of the technology that is needed has not yet been developed. However, a person could in principle code a seed AI on an ordinary current personal computer; and therefore it is possible, although unlikely, that a person could establish the right intuition for developing these technologies in the near future. 

Biological cognition

A third way to attain greater-than-current-human intelligence is to increase the operations of our biological brains. 

This could be done by low-tech approaches. For instance, mothers and babies consuming the best possible nutrition, having a better and healthier environment, removing parasites from the environment, getting sufficient sleep and exercise, and not allowing people get infected by diseases that affect the brain. These can definitely improve cognition although they are not enough to achieve superintelligence, particularly in developed countries where people are already reasonably eating well and are educated. 

However, humanity could opt for “the derivation of viable sperm and eggs from embryonic stem cells.” People could have the opportunity to select a number of embryos that have enhanced genetic characteristics. 

In this way, the average level of intelligence in people could be very high, “possibly equal to or somewhat above that of the most intelligent individual in the historical human population.” If a large number of these highly intelligent individuals inhabit the earth, then a collective superintelligence could be obtained. 

Some states may not allow this type of conceiving on moral or religious grounds, which is a major challenge. 

Nevertheless, once the individuals conceived in this way illustrate their potential and capabilities, people “within society would see places at elite schools being filled with genetically selected children (who may also on average be prettier, healthier, and more conscientious) and will want their own offspring to have the same advantages.” 

According to Bostrom, development down the biological path is certainly possible. 

Appropriately, imagine the amount of development and advancement that can be made in artificial intelligence if the average individual performs intellectually like Alan Turing or John von Neumann. 

Networks and organizations 

Superintelligence is also possible by “gradual enhancement of networks and organizations that link individual human minds with one another and with various artifacts and bots. “

This notion relies on the collaboration between brains in order to attain collective superintelligence. 

Lie detectors that are dependable and practical could decrease deception and fraud in occurrences between humans. Self-deception detectors may be more significant as well.

Progression in collective intelligence can also occur through better general organizational and economic developments, and from ensuring that more of the world’s population is educated and connected to the internet. If the whole of the population has access to the Internet, then they will be able to get educated and have similar opportunities like the rest of the world.